China has
decreased export quotas for the metal since 2008. As of this year the quota
stands at 15,700 tonnes, a reduction of 300 tonnes over 2010. The tight supply
of the metal, as well as increased demand has sent prices through to all time
highs. The price for ferrotungsten as of Feb. 23 is at $50 per kg, tungsten APT
is quoted at $380 per mtu. These prices are well over the record highs reached
last week of $45 per kg.
There are 5
factors resulting in this situation. First of all, China has banned exports of
concentrate, raw material, but they will export semi-refined and refined
powders. In 2004-5 the recycling component of the market was around 5 percent,
now it is at 35 percent. As the Chinese reduced exports, part of that buffer was
taken up by increased recycling, but that has hit a ceiling.
And the
second, the market was able to substitute a lack of raw materials coming from
China with increased recycling efforts. However, a 35 percent recycling rate is
at around the maximum level. New demand for the metal has to be met by new
mining production. All of these factors were in play before the economic
collapse, shortly thereafter, “the price for tungsten APT went down to $185 per
mtu.
The next,
the low prices and lack of buyers forced many tungsten miners to halt
production. As the market started coming back inventories of the metal were
being depleted. “There was an initial surge to restock, and all the while the
balance between recycled increased and the reduced exports from china have hit a
wall. The increased demand then starts to push prices up.
There are
very few substitutes because of the unique characteristics of tungsten. Pricing
for tungsten is inelastic, I use the analogy that if you are drilling an oil
well, if you have to pull your drill string up 10,000 feet three more times to
change drill bits, that’s gets pretty expensive. The need for drill bits in the
oil sector alone is a market that can not survive without the metal, and oil
prices are on the rise.
And the
last, new markets for tungsten will also be the driver of future demand.
Tungsten is quickly replacing lead in a variety of industries because of the
toxic nature of lead. Jewelry demand, tungsten’s use in LCD screens, and new
breakthroughs in nanotechnology will all add to an already tight supply chain.
Until new mining can make up the shortfalls expect prices to continue to
rise.
There are a
lot of new markets for tungsten, they are small market, but each adds tonnage.
If you add up all the new demand you all of a sudden you have a few thousand
tones. This new technology allows us to nano-coat tungsten particles with
polymers to create a bendable product that replaces lead. While the technology
has yet to get traction, but when it does it could comprise 5-10 percent of the
market, price is an issue, and some of the products are price sensitive. These
materials can be used in automotive, medical and other various industries such
as nuclear power. A recent invention from Entergy Corporation uses tungsten as a
radioactive shielding agent and is replacing lead in nuclear facilities. The
supply shortages of tungsten will continue to push prices up until new
production makes up the difference. The biggest new market which is still yet to
come is the composite market.
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